The Swami is In (Manila 2008)

Inevitably the year's end and the prospect of the next brings out everyone's bent for prognostication. This year I'll be no exception. I'll weigh in with a few thoughts since I suspect no one will actually hold me accountable for these if I'm wrong and if I'm correct, I get to crow on about my skills thereby up-ing my consultant street creed.

Prediction 1: Even as more offshore destinations appear on the horizon, the dollar loses value relative to the Philippine Peso, and offshoring comes under scrutiny in the 2008 Presidential scrum the Philippines will get more seats of business in a migration of massive proportions. Why? I'm glad you asked:

• $10 - 15/hour is still better than $25/hour
• Canada, Australia, UK, Singapore, New Zealand, etc. are still expensive places to operate back-office activities; they have cash to spend; and they are at near full employment.
• India's voice business will migrate in droves.
• BPO in the Philippines has matured significantly and will continue to do so.
• The Philippines has game (remember that this was the most dynamic economy in Asia before Marcos had his way with it).

Prediction 2: BPA/P will improve its ability to communicate with the world on behalf of the industry. The new McKinsey report commissioned by BPA/P is deep, insightful and pretty rosy in its outlook. It also means that someone has taken the time to work with a well-respected consultancy to develop an objective view of the Philippines as destination. Oscar Sañez has also proven a capable leader with a solid understanding of how to guide advocacy in and outside of the Philippines.

Prediction 3: The movement outside of Metro Manila will continue unabated as organizations like TeleTech drive service delivery beyond Manila and Cebu.


Prediction 4: Since the big contracts are spoken for, Boutique Outsourcing and the mid-market will offer more opportunity through the end of the decade. It's not just for the big guys anymore — others will get in on the act as they realize the do-ability of outsourcing and the industry continues its search for growth.

Prediction 5: Software as a service/hosted applications/apps on tap will be increasingly key to those of us that don't have the inclination to have a large IT staff or re-invent the wheel.

Usually it's the big organizations that have things like globally deployed project management tools that permit Shell in the Netherlands to work on tasks with Shell in Dubai, for example. Today it's not just for corporate behemoths anymore: we use applications like Basecamp, a very cool collaboration/project management tool that helps us work together with clients and vendors on everything from online marketing to business plan writing.

That's one of several tools that we employ to offer marketing services to North America, Australia, the Middle East, etc. Now that anyone with a few hundred bucks can perform collaborative work from afar and the playing field will keep opening up for niche services offered offshore. WSJ Research identifies several hallmarks of effective Global collaboration: Frequent communication, Common task understanding, Clear expectations, Familiarity among team members [cited from Phred Dvorak in WSJ article, Global teams: divide (work) and conquer].

From Manila: Looking at 2008

As part of the predictable New Years resolution packet, here is a new blog announcement that trumpets a set of blogs that signal a selection of blogs that segregate my musing into a few categories:

• Business in the Philippines with a bent toward Outsourcing from the Provider Perspective: Manila Comment
  
• Observations on the talent variable of the offshoring equation: Talent Philippines
• Stuff I wish I'd known setting up here in the Philippines: Boutique Offshore
  
• Still more commentary on everyday life in Manila and Southeast Asia: Manila Muse
  

These concepts had been jumbled together in a basket of observations in Manila Muse, a project I had unfortunately abandoned as my time in 2007 became more consumed with the project growing a business through its delicate second year of life. That was a year of surprising growth and, as I reflect upon it, a year of multiple revelations in the endeavor of management and operations as a supplier to the BPO industry.

The rationale for the activity is pretty straightforward — Blogging provides an opportunity to solicit global input on ideas that have global and (increasingly) local relevance. As much as the notion that accessing other's input, I suppose I wish that someone had appraised me of the specifics of running this kind of business in the Philippines. Plenty of consultants will provide insight into the world of large business here, but few offer relevant insight for companies that either operate here or source a portion of their business offshore but at a smaller level than large outsourcers. More importantly, on a personal level, writing about these ideas helps me to more effectively explore them than almost any other method.